Predict ship dates based on past experience

Hmm, the title sounds like a spam email, doesn’t it?

We’re wanting to get our sub-project estimates more accurate so we can plan better, and toward this end I’ve been wishing that someone (not me, I’m working on the next cycle! ;)  would gather some statistics on how we’ve estimated in the past.  Do I overestimate a task’s size about as often as I underestimate it?  Or do I consistently underestimate?  (The latter seems more likely…)  For tasks I underestimate, do I tend to underestimate by a certain relatively fixed multiplier, or am I usually pretty close except in certain cases in which I’m way off? (Again, the latter seems more likely.)  If the latter, I could then look for factors I didn’t account for that put the task significantly past the estimate.

Anyways, it turns out FogBugz does this type of analysis automatically.  AND their mascot is a cool-looking Kiwi creature.

Do these two combined facts justify $199 per seat-or-under?  Maybe 30 seats => $5697.  Hmm.  Sure seems like it could help.


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